Lady Bird Will Go Home Empty-handed on Oscar Night, Unless …

Saoirse Ronan in Lady Bird.

Photo: A24

Of this year’s 9 Best Picture nominees, scarcely all of them are well-situated to take home during slightest one Oscar, if not more. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is a front-runner to win both Best Actress for Frances McDormand and Best Supporting Actor for Sam Rockwell, while Darkest Hour looks like it’s cruising to a Best Actor feat for Gary Oldman. The Shape of Water’s Guillermo del Toro is a pacesetter for Best Director, and that film will expected separate some of a tech categories with Dunkirk. Get Out has feverishness in a Best Original Screenplay difficulty after a Writers Guild Awards win this past weekend, while Call Me by Your Name is expected to take home a Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar, and Phantom Thread is positive of during slightest one feat in Best Costume Design.

There are dual Best Picture contenders, though, that currently demeanour like they’ll go home empty-handed on Oscar night. One isn’t surprising: The Post is a least-nominated film in that category, an awards-season underperformer that usually managed one additional Best Actress assignment for Meryl Streep. It won’t win either. A small some-more fresh is a stream standing of Lady Bird, one of a year’s many poignant indie hits and a leader of mixed Golden Globes, including Best Comedy or Musical. Unless Greta Gerwig’s acclaimed mother-daughter act pulls some arrange of poignant upset, a film is not expected to win in any of a 5 Oscar categories it’s nominated for.

Still, keep wish alive, Sacramento: While Lady Bird is not a front-runner in any category, it’s a clever No. 2 in some of those races, and there are narratives in play that meant a film could operative a last-minute surprise. Here are a 5 Oscar categories that Lady Bird is contending in, as good as what a film has going both for it and opposite it.

Best Original Screenplay

Lady Bird won’t win here, given … it’s competing in this difficulty opposite a dual strongest Best Picture contenders, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards, and each Best Picture leader given 2005 besides The Artist has also won a screenplay Oscar. If any dark-horse screenplay hopeful is expected to overcome opposite those dual titans, it’s substantially Get Out, that notched Jordan Peele a win during a WGAs over a weekend in a competition where Three Billboards was incompetent to compete.
Unless! The many equivalent Oscar car to Lady Bird is substantially 2007’s Juno, another contemporary, female-driven teenage comedy that was nominated in all a same categories as Lady Bird solely for Best Supporting Actress. Juno’s solitary Oscar win came for Diablo Cody in Best Original Screenplay, yet we should note that she was positively a restricted favorite going into that night. Still, she and Gerwig share some similarities, including a star energy that is surprising for contenders in this category. No lady has won a Best Original Screenplay Oscar given Cody, though a fashion is set.

Best Supporting Actress

Lady Bird won’t win here, given … I, Tonya star Allison Janney appears to have this Oscar on lockdown. She’s won each pivotal endowment adult until now, including a SAG statuette and a Golden Globe, has a flashier complicated-mom purpose than her Lady Bird competition Laurie Metcalf, and has cruised by this awards deteriorate looking like a million bucks. She just feels like a winner.
Unless! I, Tonya scored a few Oscar nominations though missed out on Best Picture, so we know that Lady Bird is better-liked, even if Metcalf has been this season’s bridesmaid. It’s value observant that a final 3 Best Supporting Actress winners repped their film’s solitary Oscar win — that would be Boyhood’s Patricia Arquette, The Danish Girl’s Alicia Vikander, and Fences star Viola Davis — so this difficulty has something of a story as a satisfaction esteem for films that are well-liked though not clever adequate to be famous elsewhere. (Then again, we could contend that about I, Tonya, too.)

Best Actress

Lady Bird won’t win here, given … Frances McDormand is roughly certain to overcome for her inhuman work in Three Billboards. She’s won each televised endowment so distant and she hails from a film that is a silver flip divided from winning Best Picture.
Unless! It’s value observant that Lady Bird star Saoirse Ronan did win a Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Comedy, while McDormand triumphed opposite a aisle from her in Best Actress in a Drama. McDormand has also won one Oscar already and delivered a SAG debate where she coaxed electorate to prerogative younger performers, evidently charity a permit to opinion for Ronan, who is on her third Academy Award assignment during age 23. Say it with me: Oscar loves an ingenue!

Best Director

Lady Bird won’t win here, given … Guillermo del Toro is a male to beat. The good-humored Shape of Water helmer has taken home all a good hardware and won during a Director’s Guild of America, that means he’s roughly certain to repeat with Oscar.
Unless! Do we remember when Natalie Portman introduced a 5 “all-male nominees” for Best Director during a Golden Globes? Of march we do. Oscar electorate do, too.

Best Picture

Lady Bird won’t win here, given … this increasingly seems to be a Shape/Billboards conflict royale, with each other contender clawing for purchase. The Shape of Water won dual essential guild awards from DGA and a PGA, while Three Billboards won a tip esteem from a actors of SAG, that suggests strength with Oscar’s biggest voting body. It’s also value observant that Lady Bird couldn’t pattern adult a Best Editing nomination, and no film has won Best Picture though a curtsy for a modifying given 1980’s Ordinary People (aside from Birdman, that used a one-take character that de-emphasized a editing.)
Unless! Best Picture uses a favoured list that is meant to prerogative a accord choice: It’s critical to place No. 1 on many ballots, though it can be only as pivotal for your weighted measure if we uncover adult as each other person’s No. 2. Lady Bird is a well-liked film opposite a house that has not suffered any vital backlash, that puts it in a good position here. I’m not certain that a Get Out voter would put Three Billboards during No. 2 on his ballot, only as a Three Billboards voter competence not put Get Out during No. 2 on her ballot, though both kinds of electorate competence put Lady Bird there. If adequate of them do, maybe Greta Gerwig’s film can branch a night of waste with a biggest win of all.

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